panflu Stats

[Mixin]

Tokyo, Aug 22, 2008 (Jiji Press) - A fully owned subsidiary of heavy equipment maker IHI Corp. <7013> has signed a contract with UMN Pharma Inc. to design a facility to produce a pandemic flu vaccine being developed by the biotechnology firm, IHI said Friday.

To proceed with the project and strengthen ties with UMN, IHI Plant Engineering Corp. has acquired a 1.93 pct equity stake in the Akita-based firm for some 200 million yen.

The vaccine, UMN-0501, developed by cell culture using recombinant protein, can be produced in about eight weeks. It is subjected to Phase I and II clinical trials.

A pandemic flu is feared to occur when a new influenza virus, to which human beings have no immunity, emerges through the mutation of a deadly bird flu virus.

http://japancorp.net/Article.Asp?Art_ID=19500

[gs]

8 weeks until the first doses are produced ?

You have to vaccinate the whole population twice with 3 weeks
between the shots. Then they must develope immunity which takes
another 3? weeks

Assume you could even start bulk vaccination after 10 weeks,
it will still take another 6 weeks until the population
is "pandemic-ready", immunologically.

OTOH with stockpiled vaccine you could give one dose
of a non-specific vaccine immediately,
then the 2nd shot after 10 weeks.
13 weeks vs. 16 , 3 weeks spared, not too much.
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--gs . Send me estimates of H5N1-deaths for the next 5 years (expectation value) !