panflu Stats Forum Indexpanflu Stats
Influenza Pandemic Science, Statistics and News
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in            Calendar

NEWS:
A/swine/4/Mexico/2009(H1N1)

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    panflu Stats Forum Index -> Virus Code
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
gs
Site Admin


Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Posts: 972
:
Location: Germany

Items

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 10:13 am    Post subject: A/swine/4/Mexico/2009(H1N1) Reply with quote

copied from the origin of mexlu discussion thread



A/Swine/4/Mexico/2009/(H1N1) from April 2009 has been
uploaded to genbank

it has 1+5+6+10+6+9+4+2 mutations in the 8 segments {see below}, 9 of which are mixed signals
{T678K(1),G715R(4),A716R(4),A719R(4),T102N(6),C435M(6),C1326Y(6),T552Y(7),T614K(7)}

0+2+0+0+2+2+1+1 of these mutations are seen in mexflu-(pig-) ancestors

T678K(1),
G377A(2),T1722C(2),A1803C(2),A1907G(2),T2022C(2),
C666A(3),G1219A(3),C1392T(3),A1521G(3),A1578T(3),C1680T(3),
T598C(4),G640A(4),G715R(4),A716R(4),A719R(4),A729G(4),T873C(4),C991T(4),A1278G(4),G1623A(4),
T159G(5),A230G(5),A387G(5),C792T(5),C1002T(5),C1272A(5),
T102N(6),A103G(6),C108T(6),C377A(6),C435M(6),T849C (6),C864A(6),A903G(6),C1326Y(6),
A315G(7),T552Y(7),T614K(7),T760C(7),
A408G(Cool,C418A(Cool,

K: T or G
R: A or G
N: A or C or G or T
M: A or C
Y: C or T


T1722C(2),A1803C(2),T159G(5),C792T(5),C108T(6),C377A(6),A315G(7),A408G(Cool
are from swine-triple-reassortant (1,2,3,5,Cool classical swine (4) or Eurasian swine (6,7)

The pig has none of the early human-mexflu markers, only 11 out of 833 human mexflu
genomes at genbank on Nov.25 had this property.

the calculated probability (p-value) is 1:250 that ancestors of this pig
virus had replicated in humans

there are 3309 different mexflu mutations until Nov.26 since creation in early 2009.
158 of these coincide with the calculated best recent ancestor of mexflu rom known
viruses, which is more then 10 years back.

the probability of success in 7 or more cases out of 43 trials
with single success-probability 158/3309 is ~0.004

with ~40 mutations the estimated common ancestor of mexflu
and this pig-virus is ~Sept.2008
(unless the mutations are created in the lab, as was apparantly
the case with the Alberta-pigs)



see here where the pig was sampled
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/mexst.JPG

red the state where the pig was sampled in April
blue the state with the first confirmed case (baby
on Feb.24)
_________________
------------------------------------------------------
--gs . Send me estimates of H5N1-deaths for the next 5 years (expectation value) !
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    panflu Stats Forum Index -> Virus Code All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
panflu Stats topic RSS feed 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
FREE FORUM HOSTING by AtFreeForum. Terms of Service - Privacy Policy
FASHION ACCESSORIES - BLING BLING - LADIES WATCHES - KOREAN CHILDREN CLOTHING - ONLINE BARGAIN STORE - FASHION JEWELLERIES